It’s the Geography, Stupid!

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Despite the surge of patriotism in reaction to Prime Minister Carney’s recent speech at Davos, it is readily apparent to anyone with a map and basic knowledge of history that Canada’s fortunes are inextricably attached to the United States.
 
Stated simply, geography determines basically everything about a nation’s fortunes. Whether it is security, economy, trade, development, prosperity, or culture, a nation must take geography into account. To think otherwise is folly.
 
Imagine Mongolia trying to be a naval power or have an independent foreign policy. Or Belgium wishing it were left alone when Germany and France were at war? In fact, every war in human history has been shaped by its geography. Sometimes geography helps a nation win (such as Britain being an island) or sometimes lose (such as Poland being so flat).
 
The same principle applies to economics. And that especially applies to Canada.
 
For instance, the population of the United States is a roughly ten times the size of Canada and is a global superpower. Canada’s location between Russia and the United States makes it impossible to have an entirely independent foreign policy. Canada’s industry and trade is meshed with America in a complex symbiotic relationship forged over centuries, and its relatively small population and industrial base makes it impossible to compete head-to-head with the economic colossus to the south. 
 
Stated simply, to think that Canada can thrive apart from a good relationship with the US is folly. 

Canadian patriotic zeal and offense over the actions of the US President may fuel bluster and insults toward the southern neighbor. It will even gain political points for politicians who seek to capitalize on Canadian frustrations. But that is a fool’s game,
 
Clear thinking realism needs to recognize Canada’s limitations due to geography, but also the opportunities. After all, many nations in the world would love to have the access to American markets and industry that Canada has due to its geography.
 
What is needed now is less cathartic bluster or tough guy references to hockey but more wisdom and humility rooted in hard unchangeable realities on the ground. Stated simply, to think that Canada will prosper against the wishes of the US goes against common sense and Canada had better quickly pivot its rhetoric and policies to reflect its geography.  To adapt an idiom from the Clinton era, “Its the Geography, Stupid.”